Chowell, Gerardo Viboud, Cécile
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
The increasing use of mathematical models for epidemic forecasting has highlighted the importance of designing models that capture the baseline transmission characteristics in order to generate reliable epidemic forecasts. Improved models for epidemic forecasting could be achieved by identifying signature features of epidemic growth, which could in...
Azizi, Asma Ríos-Soto, Karen Mubayi, Anuj M Hyman, James
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
We create and analyze a mathematical model to estimate the impact of condom-use and sexual behavior on the prevalence and spread of Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs). STIs remain a significant public health challenge globally with a high burden of some Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs) in both developed and undeveloped countries. Although c...
Smirnova, Alexandra Chowell, Gerardo
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
Public health officials are increasingly recognizing the need to develop disease-forecasting systems to respond to epidemic and pandemic outbreaks. For instance, simple epidemic models relying on a small number of parameters can play an important role in characterizing epidemic growth and generating short-term epidemic forecasts. In the absence of ...
Reis, Julia Shaman, Jeffrey
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
While influenza has been simulated extensively to better understand its behavior and predict future outbreaks, most other respiratory viruses have seldom been simulated. In this study, we provide an overview of four common respiratory viral infections: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), respiratory adenovirus, rhinovirus and parainfluenza, present ...
Santillana, Mauricio Tuite, Ashleigh Nasserie, Tahmina Fine, Paul Champredon, David Chindelevitch, Leonid Dushoff, Jonathan Fisman, David
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
Mathematical models are often regarded as recent innovations in the description and analysis of infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics, but simple mathematical expressions have been in use for projection of epidemic trajectories for more than a century. We recently introduced a single equation model (the incidence decay with exponential adjustm...
Enkhbat, Erdenetungalag Korenromp, Eline L. Badrakh, Jugderjav Zayasaikhan, Setsen Baya, Purevsuren Orgiokhuu, Enkhjargal Jadambaa, Narantuya Munkhbaatar, Sergelen Khishigjargal, Delgermaa Khad, Narantuya
...
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
Introduction Mongolia's health ministry prioritizes control of Sexually Transmitted Infections, including syphilis screening and treatment in antenatal care (ANC). Methods Adult syphilis prevalence trends were fitted using the Spectrum-STI estimation tool, using data from ANC surveys and routine screening over 1997–2016. Estimates were combined wit...
de Montigny, Simon Boily, Marie-Claude Mâsse, Benoît R. Mitchell, Kate M. Dimitrov, Dobromir T.
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
Background The epidemiological tipping point ratio (TPR) has been suggested as a useful indicator to monitor the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes and determine when scale-up is sufficient to control the epidemic. TPR has been defined as the ratio of yearly number of new HIV infections to the yearly number of new ART initiations...
Lee, Hanl Lao, Angelyn
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (HPAI) H5N6 in the Philippines (particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija) in August 2017, there has been an increase in the need to cull the domestic birds to control the spread of the infection. However, this control method poses a negative impact on the poultry industry. In addition, the...
Vallejo, Celeste Keesling, James Koopman, James Singer, Burton
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
An error in a previous publication in the calculation of the average age at first infection for the model is corrected here. The average age at first infection for the effective contact rates used to generate the data ranges from 1.2 to 3.3 years of age instead of 3–5 years of age as advertised in the previous version of the paper. This change has ...
Tritch, William Allen, Linda J.S.
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
Disease outbreaks in stochastic SIR epidemic models are characterized as either minor or major. When ℛ 0 1 , they can be minor or major. In 1955, Whittle derived formulas for the probability of a minor or a major epidemic. A minor epidemic is distinguished from a major one in that a minor epidemic is generally of shorter duration and has substanti...
