Gnanvi, Janyce Eunice Salako, Kolawolé Valère Kotanmi, Gaëtan Brezesky Glèlè Kakaï, Romain
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
• 46% of studies used compartmental models, 32% statistical models, and 1% individual-based models. • Predicted cumulative cases were larger than values observed in reality for 1/3 of the predictions. • Observed values were within the 95% CI or CrI of predicted number of cumulative cases in 75% of predictions. • The wider the time covered by the da...
Bhadauria, Archana Singh Pathak, Rachana Chaudhary, Manisha
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
This research paper aims at studying the impact of lockdown on the dynamics of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan city of China in December 2019. Perceiving the pandemic situation throughout the world, Government of India restricted international passenger traffic through land check post (Liang, 2020) and imposed complete lockdo...
Xiang, Yue Jia, Yonghong Chen, Linlin Guo, Lei Shu, Bizhen Long, Enshen
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word, in a very complex manner. A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19 scientifically through mathematical modelling. We conducted a systematic review of epidemic prediction models of COVID-19 and the public health i...
Amaku, Marcos Covas, Dimas Tadeu Bezerra Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Azevedo Neto, Raymundo Soares Struchiner, Claudio Wilder-Smith, Annelies Massad, Eduardo
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of society. In this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-and-quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo, Brasil. The State of São Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy, reaching at ...
Brethouwer, Jan-Tino van de Rijt, Arnout Lindelauf, Roy Fokkink, Robbert
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
This paper repurposes the classic insight from network theory that long-distance connections drive disease propagation into a strategy for controlling a second wave of Covid-19. We simulate a scenario in which a lockdown is first imposed on a population and then partly lifted while long-range transmission is kept at a minimum. Simulated spreading p...
Kimathi, Mark Mwalili, Samuel Ojiambo, Viona Gathungu, Duncan Kioi
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Kenya reported its first case on March 13, 2020 and by March 16, 2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies to reduce transmission and flatten the epidemic curve. An age-structured compartmental model was developed to assess the impact of the strategies o...
Bartolomeo, Nicola Trerotoli, Paolo Serio, Gabriella
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
To estimate the size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in the early stage in Italy, this paper introduces the cumulated and weighted average daily growth rate (WR) to evaluate an epidemic curve. On the basis of an exponential decay model (EDM), we provide estimations of the WR in four-time intervals from February 27 to April 07, 2020. By...
Alemneh, Haileyesus Tessema Kassa, Assefa Sintayehu Godana, Anteneh Asmare
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
In this paper we formulated and analyzed an optimal deterministic eco-epidemiological model for the dynamics of maize streak virus (MSV) and examine the best strategy to fight maize population from maize streak disease (MSD). The optimal control model is developed with three control interventions, namely prevention ( u 1), quarantine ( u 2) and che...
Alguliyev, Rasim Aliguliyev, Ramiz Yusifov, Farhad
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
The modelling is widely used in determining the best strategies for the mitigation of the impact of infectious diseases. Currently, the modelling of a complex system such as the spread of COVID-19 infection is among the topical issues. The aim of this article is graph-based modelling of the COVID-19 infection spread. The article investigates the st...
Dougherty, Brendan P. Smith, Ben A. Carson, Carolee A. Ogden, Nicholas H.
Published in
Infectious Disease Modelling
While surveillance can identify changes in COVID-19 transmission patterns over time and space, sections of the population at risk, and the efficacy of public health measures, reported cases of COVID-19 are generally understood to only capture a subset of the actual number of cases. Our primary objective was to estimate the percentage of cases repor...
