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Where should police forces target their residential burglary reduction efforts? Using official victimisation data to predict burglary incidences at the neighbourhood level

Authors
  • Hunter, James1
  • Ward, Bethany1
  • Tseloni, Andromachi1
  • Pease, Ken2
  • 1 Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham, UK , Nottingham (United Kingdom)
  • 2 University of Derby, Derby, UK , Derby (United Kingdom)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Crime Science
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publication Date
Jun 05, 2021
Volume
10
Issue
1
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1186/s40163-021-00144-x
Source
Springer Nature
Keywords
License
Green

Abstract

Expected crime rates that enable police forces to contrast recorded and anticipated spatial patterns of crime victimisation offer a valuable tool in evaluating the under-reporting of crime and inform/guide crime reduction initiatives. Prior to this study, police forces had no access to expected burglary maps at the neighbourhood level covering all parts of England and Wales. Drawing on analysis of the Crime Survey for England and Wales and employing a population terrain modelling approach, this paper utilises household and area characteristics to predict the mean residential burglary incidences per 1000 population across all neighbourhoods in England and Wales. The analysis identifies distinct differences in recorded and expected neighbourhood burglary incidences at the Output Area level, providing a catalyst for stimulating further reflection by police officers and crime analysts.

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