Validating a phenomenological mathematical model for public health and safety interventions influencing the evolutionary stages of recent outbreak for long-term and short-term domains in Pakistan

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Validating a phenomenological mathematical model for public health and safety interventions influencing the evolutionary stages of recent outbreak for long-term and short-term domains in Pakistan

Authors
  • Nawaz, Ahsan
  • Su, Xing
  • Iqbal, Shahid
  • Hafiz Zahoor
  • Asad, Ali
  • Asghar, Sana
  • Basit, Farwa
  • Barkat, Muhammad Qasim
  • Souhail, Amir
  • Raheel Shah, Syyed Adnan
Type
Published Article
Journal
Complexity
Publisher
Hindawi Limited
Publication Date
Sep 05, 2020
Volume
2020
Pages
1–9
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1155/2020/8866071
Source
MyScienceWork
License
Green

Abstract

During the outbreak of an epidemic, it becomes significantly essential to monitor the effects of containment measures and forecast the outbreak, including the epidemic peak. Many countries have either implemented strict lockdown to counter the spread of coronavirus disease or taken necessary preventive measures across the world to reduce the outbreak of this epidemic war. Several epidemic models have been presented across the world to examine the effects of public health-related strategies on mitigating the spread of current infectious disease, yet no reputable model has been presented for Pakistan as well as other South-Asian developing countries as per the authors' knowledge. In this research, an actual coronavirus prediction in Pakistan is presented, which may guide the decision-makers as to how this pandemic has spread across the country and how it can be controlled. Furthermore, in the absence of targeted medicines, the analysis helps to develop a precise plan for the eradication of the outbreak by adopting the calculated steps at the right time. .e mathematical phenomenological models have been adopted in this study to predict, project, and simulate the overall affected cases reflected due to the recent outbreak in Pakistan. .ese models predict the expected growth, and the estimated results are almost well matched with the real cases. .rough the calibration of parameters and analyzing the current situation, forecast for the appearance of new cases in Pakistan is reported till the end of this year. .e constant level of number of patients and time to reach specific levels are also reported through the simulations. .e drastic conditions are also discussed which may occur if all the preventive restraints are removed. .is research quantitatively describes the significant characteristics of the spread of corona cases. It acknowledges and provides an understanding of a short-term and long-term transmission of coronavirus outbreak in the country as three evolutionary phases. .erefore, this research provides a pathway to cope with the emerging threat of a severe outbreak in developing and nondeveloping countries. Hindawi Complexity Volume 2020, Article ID 8866071, 9 pages https://doi.

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