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The U-shaped crime recovery during COVID-19: evidence from national crime rates in Mexico

Authors
  • Balmori de la Miyar, Jose Roberto1
  • Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren2
  • Silverio-Murillo, Adan3
  • 1 Universidad Anahuac Mexico, Av. Universidad Anáhuac 46, Huixquilucan, 52786, Mexico , Huixquilucan (Mexico)
  • 2 Georgia State University, Atlanta, USA , Atlanta (United States)
  • 3 Tecnologico de Monterrey, Mexico City, Mexico , Mexico City (Mexico)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Crime Science
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publication Date
Jun 30, 2021
Volume
10
Issue
1
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1186/s40163-021-00147-8
Source
Springer Nature
Keywords
Disciplines
  • Covid-19 and Crime: consequences for incidence, public safety, security, and prevention
License
Green

Abstract

The existing empirical evidence suggests a reduction in aggregate crime as a consequence of the COVID-19 lockdown. However, what happens when lockdown measures are relaxed? This paper considers how the COVID-19 pandemic affects crime rates throughout Mexico when the stay-at-home orders end. We use national crime data from Mexico’s National Public Security System, which reports municipality-level rates on assault & battery, theft & property crime, fraud, drug crimes & extortion, and homicides. Our results show that the majority of crimes follow a U-shaped trend—when the lockdown ends—crimes rise back to pre-pandemic levels.

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