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Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions

Authors
  • Pellis, Lorenzo1, 2, 3
  • Cauchemez, Simon4
  • Ferguson, Neil M.3
  • Fraser, Christophe5
  • 1 University of Manchester, Manchester, UK , Manchester (United Kingdom)
  • 2 Zeeman Institute and Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Warwick, UK , Warwick (United Kingdom)
  • 3 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, UK , London (United Kingdom)
  • 4 Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, 75015, France , Paris (France)
  • 5 Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK , Oxford (United Kingdom)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Nature
Publication Date
Feb 14, 2020
Volume
11
Issue
1
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-14229-4
Source
Springer Nature
License
Green

Abstract

Models of emerging epidemics can be exceedingly helpful in planning the response, but early on model selection is a difficult task. Here, the authors explore the joint contribution of age stratification and household structure on epidemic spread, and provides a rule of thumb to guide model choice.

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