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[Stochastic population models for the analysis of the effects of demographic processes on social security systems].

Authors
Type
Published Article
Journal
Allgemeines statistisches Archiv
Publication Date
Volume
70
Issue
1
Pages
52–74
Identifiers
PMID: 12267735
Source
Medline
Keywords
  • Data Analysis
  • Demographic Analysis
  • Demographic Factors
  • Demographic Impact
  • Developed Countries
  • Economic Factors
  • Error Sources
  • Estimation Technics
  • Europe
  • Evaluation
  • Financial Activities
  • Financing, Government
  • Germany, Federal Republic Of
  • Government Sponsored Programs
  • Mathematical Model
  • Measurement
  • Methodological Studies
  • Microeconomic Factors
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Old Age Security
  • Organization And Administration
  • Population
  • Population Dynamics
  • Population Forecast
  • Population Projection
  • Programs
  • Reliability
  • Research Methodology
  • Social Security
  • Socioeconomic Factors
  • Western Europe

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to describe several methods for quantifying the amount of uncertainty inherent in population forecasts used to assess the impact of demographic processes on social security systems. Each method is briefly outlined, and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. The primary emphasis is on stochastic population models, and the geographic focus is on the Federal Republic of Germany.

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