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Stochastic Petri Net Based Modeling of Emergency Medical Rescue Processes during Earthquakes

Authors
  • Sun, Huali1
  • Liu, Jiaguo2
  • Han, Ziqiang3
  • Jiang, Juan1
  • 1 Shanghai University,
  • 2 Dalian Maritime University,
  • 3 Shandong University,
Type
Published Article
Journal
Journal of Systems Science and Complexity
Publisher
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Publication Date
Jan 12, 2021
Pages
1–24
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1007/s11424-020-9139-3
PMID: 33456273
PMCID: PMC7801775
Source
PubMed Central
Keywords
License
Unknown

Abstract

The post-disaster emergency medical rescue (EMR) is critical for people’s lives. This paper presents a stochastic Petri net (SPN) model based on the process of the rescue structure and a Markov chain model (MC), which is applied to the optimization of the EMR process, with the aim of identifying the key activities of EMR. An isomorphic MC model is developed for measuring and evaluating the time performance of the EMR process during earthquakes with the data of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. This paper provides a mathematical approach to simulate the process and to evaluate the efficiency of EMR. Simultaneously, the expressions of the steady state probabilities of this system under various states are obtained based on the MC, and the variations of the probabilities are analyzed by changing the firing rates for every transition. Based on the concrete data of the event, the authors find the most time consuming and critical activities for EMR decisions. The model results show that the key activities can improve the efficiency of medical rescue, providing decision-makers with rescue strategies during the large scale earthquake.

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