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Spatial variation in teens' crash rate reduction following the implementation of a graduated driver licensing program in Michigan.

Authors
  • Goldstick, Jason E1
  • Carter, Patrick M2
  • Almani, Farideh3
  • Brines, Shannon J4
  • Shope, Jean T5
  • 1 Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Michigan, E Medical Center Drive, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, United States; Injury Prevention Center, University of Michigan, 2800 Plymouth Road, Suite B10-G080, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-2800, United States. Electronic address: [email protected] , (United States)
  • 2 Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Michigan, E Medical Center Drive, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, United States; Injury Prevention Center, University of Michigan, 2800 Plymouth Road, Suite B10-G080, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-2800, United States. , (United States)
  • 3 University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, 2901 Baxter Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2150, United States. , (United States)
  • 4 Environmental Spatial Analysis Lab, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, United States. , (United States)
  • 5 Injury Prevention Center, University of Michigan, 2800 Plymouth Road, Suite B10-G080, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-2800, United States; University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, 2901 Baxter Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2150, United States. , (United States)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Accident; analysis and prevention
Publication Date
Apr 01, 2019
Volume
125
Pages
20–28
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.01.023
PMID: 30703690
Source
Medline
Keywords
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of injury, and teen drivers contribute disproportionately to that burden. Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs are effective at reducing teen crash risk, but teen crash rates remain high. Between-state variation in the teen crash rate reduction following GDL implementation has been documented, but this is the first study to examine small-area variation in such a reduction. Fusing together crash data from the Michigan State Police, census data, and organizational data (alcohol outlet, movie theatre, and school locations), we analyzed spatial correlates of teen injury crash, and place-based features that modified the injury crash rate difference following GDL implementation. Specifically, using census-based units, we estimated changes in injury crash rates among teens using negative binomial regression controlling for spatial autocorrelation, and tested whether any measured spatial characteristics modified the crash rate change in the pre versus post GDL periods. There was a substantial reduction in teen crashes after GDL implementation (RR = 0.66, 95%CI: [0.65, 0.67]), and this effect was robust across gender and time-of-day (light/dark). We found evidence that this reduction varied across space; areas with more alcohol outlets corresponded to a larger daytime crash rate reduction post-GDL, while areas near schools corresponded to a smaller daytime crash rate reduction. Concentrations of movie theatres corresponded to larger post-GDL crash rate reductions after dark. Maximizing the substantial successes of GDL programs requires understanding why crash rate reductions were larger in some areas following GDL implementation, and harnessing that understanding to improve its effectiveness across a state, focusing on identifying priorities for improving driver training (e.g., by parents and driver educators), law enforcement, and future policy changes to current GDL laws. Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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