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Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: a temporal playbook

Authors
  • Cacciapaglia, Giacomo1, 2
  • Cot, Corentin1, 2
  • Sannino, Francesco3, 4
  • 1 Institut de Physique des 2 Infinis (IP2I), CNRS/IN2P3, UMR5822, Villeurbanne, 69622, France , Villeurbanne (France)
  • 2 Université de Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Lyon, 69001, France , Lyon (France)
  • 3 University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, Odense, 5230, Denmark , Odense (Denmark)
  • 4 Università di Napoli Federico II & INFN sezione di Napoli, Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo Edificio 6, via Cintia, Naples, 80126, Italy , Naples (Italy)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Scientific Reports
Publisher
Springer Nature
Publication Date
Sep 23, 2020
Volume
10
Issue
1
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-72611-5
Source
Springer Nature
License
Green

Abstract

A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the World. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures.

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