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Reference forecasts for CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal

Authors
  • Belbute, José M.1, 2
  • Pereira, Alfredo M.3
  • 1 Department of Economics, University of Évora, Portugal
  • 2 Center for Advanced Studies in Management and Economics – CEFAGE, Portugal
  • 3 Department of Economics, William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA, 23187, USA
Type
Published Article
Journal
Energy Policy
Publisher
Elsevier
Publication Date
Jun 15, 2020
Volume
144
Pages
111642–111642
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111642
PMID: 32565609
PMCID: PMC7295499
Source
PubMed Central
Keywords
License
Unknown

Abstract

• We provide reference forecasts for CO2 emissions in Portugal based on an ARFIMA approach. • Projections allows us to identify the policy effort necessary to achieve IPCC targets. • We forecast a reduction of 17.5% of emissions by 2050 relative to 2010 levels. • carbon neutrality by 2050 requires an additional reduction in emissions of 65.5%. • The long-memory implies that any policy effort to reduce emissions must be persistent.

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