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The real-life impact of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality in Europe and Israel

Authors
  • Jabłońska, Katarzyna1
  • Aballéa, Samuel2
  • Toumi, Mondher3
  • 1 Creativ-Ceutical, Ul. Przemysłowa 12, Kraków, 30-701, Poland
  • 2 Creativ-Ceutical, Westblaak 90, Rotterdam, 3012KM, the Netherlands
  • 3 Faculty of Medicine, Public Health Department, Aix-Marseille University, 27 Boulevard Jean Moulin, Marseille, 13005, France
Type
Published Article
Journal
Public Health
Publisher
The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Publication Date
Sep 03, 2021
Volume
198
Pages
230–237
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.07.037
PMID: 34482101
PMCID: PMC8413007
Source
PubMed Central
Keywords
Disciplines
  • Original Research
License
Unknown

Abstract

Objectives This study aimed at estimating the real-life impact of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality, with adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 variants spread and other factors across Europe and Israel. Study design Time series analysis. Methods Time series analysis of the daily number of COVID-19 deaths was performed using non-linear Poisson mixed regression models. Variables such as variants’ frequency, demographics, climate, health, and mobility characteristics of thirty-two countries between January 2020 and April 2021 were considered as potentially relevant adjustment factors. Results The analysis revealed that vaccination efficacy in terms of protection against deaths was 72%, with a lower reduction of the number of deaths for B.1.1.7 vs non-B.1.1.7 variants (70% and 78%, respectively). Other factors significantly related to mortality were arrivals at airports, mobility change from the prepandemic level, and temperature. Conclusions Our study confirms a strong effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination based on real-life public data, although lower than expected from clinical trials. This suggests the absence of indirect protection for non-vaccinated individuals. Results also show that vaccination effectiveness against mortality associated with the B.1.1.7 variant is slightly lower than that with other variants. Lastly, this analysis confirms the role of mobility reduction, within and between countries, as an effective way to reduce COVID-19 mortality and suggests the possibility of seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence.

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