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Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble.

  • Roberts, Malcolm John1
  • Camp, Joanne1
  • Seddon, Jon1
  • Vidale, Pier Luigi2
  • Hodges, Kevin2
  • Vannière, Benoît2
  • Mecking, Jenny3, 4
  • Haarsma, Rein5
  • Bellucci, Alessio6
  • Scoccimarro, Enrico6
  • Caron, Louis-Philippe7
  • Chauvin, Fabrice8
  • Terray, Laurent9
  • Valcke, Sophie9
  • Moine, Marie-Pierre9
  • Putrasahan, Dian10
  • Roberts, Christopher D11
  • Senan, Retish11
  • Zarzycki, Colin12
  • Ullrich, Paul13
  • And 9 more
  • 1 Met Office Exeter UK.
  • 2 National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) University of Reading Reading UK.
  • 3 Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton University of Southampton Southampton UK.
  • 4 Now at National Oceanography Centre Southampton UK.
  • 5 Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) De Bilt The Netherlands. , (Netherlands)
  • 6 Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Bologna Italy. , (Italy)
  • 7 Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC) Barcelona Spain. , (Spain)
  • 8 Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques-Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique (CNRM-CERFACS) Toulouse France. , (France)
  • 9 CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS Toulouse France. , (France)
  • 10 Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften E.V. (MPI-M) Hamburg Germany. , (Germany)
  • 11 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reading UK.
  • 12 Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science Penn State University State College PA USA.
  • 13 Department of Land, Air and Water Resources University of California, Davis Davis CA USA.
  • 14 JAMSTEC Tokyo Japan. , (Japan)
  • 15 Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Tsukuba Japan. , (Japan)
  • 16 Department of Oceanography Texas A&M University College Station TX USA.
  • 17 International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP) College Station TX USA.
  • 18 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder CA USA.
  • 19 Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science (QNLM) Qingdao China. , (China)
Published Article
Geophysical Research Letters
American Geophysical Union
Publication Date
Jul 28, 2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088662
PMID: 32999514


Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050. ©2020. Crown copyright.

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