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The prediction of the lifetime of the new coronavirus in the USA using mathematical models

Authors
  • Selvakumar, K.1, 2
  • Lokesh, S.3
  • 1 Anna University,
  • 2 University College of Engineering, Nagercoil, Tamil Nadu 629004 India
  • 3 Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Hindustan Institute of Technology, Othakalmandapam, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu 641032 India
Type
Published Article
Journal
Soft Computing
Publisher
Springer-Verlag
Publication Date
Mar 10, 2021
Pages
1–20
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1007/s00500-021-05643-2
PMCID: PMC7943712
Source
PubMed Central
Keywords
License
Unknown

Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO) on December 31, 2019, was informed of several cases of respiratory diseases of unknown origin in the city of Wuhan in the Chinese Province of Hubei, the clinical manifestations of which were similar to those of viral pneumonia and manifested as fever, cough, and shortness of breath. And, the disease caused by the virus is named the new coronavirus disease 2019 and it will be abbreviated as 2019-nCoV and COVID-19. As of January 30, 2020, the WHO classified this epidemic as a global health emergency (Chung et al. in Radiology 295(1):202–207, 2020). It is an international real-life problem. Due to deaths, globally everyone is under fear. Now, it is the responsibility of researchers to give hope to the people. In this article, we aim to better protect people and general pandemic preparedness by predicting the lifetime of the disease-causing virus using three mathematical models. This article deals with a complex real-life problem people face all over the world, an international real-life problem. The main focus is on the USA due to large infection and death due to coronavirus and thereby the life of every individual is uncertain. The death counts of the USA from February 29 to April 22, 2020, are used in this article as a data set. The death counts of the USA are fitted by the solutions of three mathematical models and a solution to an international problem is achieved. Based on the death rate, the lifetime of the coronavirus COVID-19 is predicted as 1464.76 days from February 29, 2020. That is, after March 2024 there will be no death in the USA due to COVID-19 if everyone follows the guidelines of WHO and the advice of healthcare workers. People and government can get prepared for this situation and many lives can be saved. It is the contribution of soft computing. Finally, this article suggests several steps to control the spread and severity of the disease. The research work, the lifetime prediction presented in this article is entirely new and differs from all other articles in the literature.

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