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Potential impact of reduced tobacco use on life and health expectancies in Belgium.

Authors
  • Otavova, Martina1, 2
  • Van Oyen, Herman3, 4
  • Yokota, Renata T C3
  • Charafeddine, Rana3
  • Joossens, Luk5
  • Molenberghs, Geert6
  • Nusselder, Wilma J7
  • Boshuizen, Hendriek C8
  • Devleesschauwer, Brecht9, 10
  • 1 Unit of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Biodemography, Department of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, 5000, Odense, Denmark. , (Denmark)
  • 2 Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, Department of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, 5000, Odense, Denmark. , (Denmark)
  • 3 Department of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Rue J Wytsman 14, 1050, Brussels, Belgium. , (Belgium)
  • 4 Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium. , (Belgium)
  • 5 Association of European Cancer Leagues, Brussels, Belgium. , (Belgium)
  • 6 I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt & KU Leuven, Hasselt, Belgium. , (Belgium)
  • 7 Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. , (Netherlands)
  • 8 Department of Statistics, Informatics and Mathematical Modeling, Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. , (Netherlands)
  • 9 Department of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Rue J Wytsman 14, 1050, Brussels, Belgium. [email protected] , (Belgium)
  • 10 Department of Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Merelbeke, Belgium. [email protected] , (Belgium)
Type
Published Article
Journal
International journal of public health
Publication Date
Nov 28, 2019
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1007/s00038-019-01315-z
PMID: 31781804
Source
Medline
Keywords
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

We investigated the potential impact of reduced tobacco use scenarios on total life expectancy and health expectancies, i.e., healthy life years and unhealthy life years. Data from the Belgian Health Interview Survey 2013 were used to estimate smoking and disability prevalence. Disability was based on the Global Activity Limitation Indicator. We used DYNAMO-HIA to quantify the impacts of risk factor changes and to compare the "business-as-usual" with alternative scenarios. The "business-as-usual" scenario estimated that in 2028 the 15-year-old men/women would live additional 50/52 years without disability and 14/17 years with disability. The "smoking-free population" scenario added 3.4/2.8 healthy life years and reduced unhealthy life years by 0.79/1.9. Scenarios combining the prevention of smoking initiation with smoking cessation programs are the most effective, yielding the largest increase in healthy life years (1.9/1.7) and the largest decrease in unhealthy life years (- 0.80/- 1.47). Health impact assessment tools provide different scenarios for evidence-informed public health actions. New anti-smoking strategies or stricter enforcement of existing policies potentially gain more healthy life years and reduce unhealthy life years in Belgium.

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