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[Population forecasts: the recent ones and those of the sixties].

Authors
Type
Published Article
Journal
Maandstatistiek van de bevolking (Hague, Netherlands : 1982)
Publication Date
Volume
30
Issue
6
Pages
12–23
Identifiers
PMID: 12338878
Source
Medline
Keywords
License
Unknown

Abstract

The author compares the accuracy of recent forecasts of population growth in the Netherlands with the accuracy of those made in the 1960s. It is noted that the method used, the cohort-component method, remains basically the same, that there is an increasing role for the social sciences in formulating the assumptions used, that the introduction of several variants for some phenomena increases the uncertainty of the forecasts, and that more phenomena are analyzed by cohort rather than period. The author concludes that methodological developments have improved population forecasting in the Netherlands.

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