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A Phenomenological Theory of Aftershocks Following a Large Earthquake

Authors
  • Guglielmi, A. V.1
  • Klain, B. I.2
  • Zavyalov, A. D.1
  • Zotov, O. D.1, 2
  • 1 Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS, Bol’shaya Gruzinskaya str., 10, bld. 1, Moscow, 123242, Russia , Moscow (Russia)
  • 2 Borok Geophysical Observatory of Institute of Physics of the Earth, RAS, Borok settlement, Nekouz district, Yaroslavl Region, 152742, Russia , Borok settlement (Russia)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Journal of Volcanology and Seismology
Publisher
Pleiades Publishing
Publication Date
Nov 01, 2021
Volume
15
Issue
6
Pages
373–378
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1134/S0742046321060038
Source
Springer Nature
Keywords
Disciplines
  • Article
License
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Abstract

AbstractThe paper presents a general outline of the phenomenological theory of aftershocks, i.e., subsequent shocks that occur in the source volume after the main shock. It is proposed to describe the evolution of aftershocks in time by the logistic Ferhulst equation. Apparently, the well-known Kolmogorov–Petrovsky–Piskunov (KPP) equation can serve as a basis for further development of the theory. The KPP equation has solutions that simulate the effect of slow aftershock propagation. The logistic equation describing the evolution of aftershocks averaged over the epicenter zone follows from it. The proposed approach may be useful in searching for models of foreshocks, main shock, and earthquake swarms.

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