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The perpetuation and epidemic recurrence of communicable diseases in human populations.

Authors
  • Boëlle, Pierre-Yves1
  • 1 UMR-S 707, université Pierre-et-Marie-Curie (Paris-6), faculté de médecine Saint-Antoine, 27, rue Chaligny, 75571 Paris cedex 12, France. [email protected] , (France)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Comptes Rendus Biologies
Publisher
Elsevier
Publication Date
Apr 01, 2007
Volume
330
Issue
4
Pages
356–363
Identifiers
PMID: 17502292
Source
Medline
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

Recurrence of communicable diseases is a looming threat for human populations. Factors explaining the recurrences are partially known, involving demographics, biology, and complex relationships with the environment, but no comprehensive theory exists today. Here, we review some recent results obtained in modelling studies with a view to understanding better the mechanisms of perpetuation. Factors intrinsic to the interaction of pathogen and host have regained interest in this respect, especially with multiple pathogen and multiple population interactions. Extrinsic factors, including pure demography and environmental forcing are also strong predictors. With increasingly detailed data available, large-scale integrated models will help sorting out the multiple influences on recurrence.

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