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Parameter Estimation in a PDE Model for the Spatial Spread of Cocoa Black Pod Disease

Authors
  • Nembot Fomba, C. G.1
  • ten Hoopen, G. M.2
  • Soubeyrand, S.3
  • Roques, L.3
  • Ambang, Z.1
  • Takam Soh, P.1
  • 1 University of Yaounde I, Yaoundé, Cameroon , Yaoundé (Cameroon)
  • 2 CIRAD, UMR PHIM, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD, Montpellier, 34398, France , Montpellier (France)
  • 3 INRAE, BioSP, Avignon, 84914, France , Avignon (France)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
Publisher
Springer US
Publication Date
Aug 27, 2021
Volume
83
Issue
10
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-021-00934-z
Source
Springer Nature
Keywords
Disciplines
  • Original Article
License
Yellow

Abstract

In this paper, we develop an epidemiological model with both environmental (primary infection from the environmental spores reservoir) and direct transmission (secondary infection from an infected host to a susceptible pod). This model simulates the spatiotemporal evolution of cocoa black pod disease caused by Phytophthora megakarya. Since reliable parameter estimation is a central issue for modeling realistic biological systems, we used a mechanistic–statistical approach to estimate model parameters from real observations of a specific cocoa plot. In addition, to refine numerical simulations of the pathosystem, data describing the shade intensity all over the plot were exploited and led to increased model predictions accuracy and also highlighted a higher number of infected pods located in areas of the plot with higher shading intensity. Recommendations in terms of promoting cocoa farming in systems with low shading intensity may be evident if these results are confirmed. Our results also highlight the importance of the environmental spore reservoir in black pod disease dynamics.

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