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Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008-2019.

Authors
  • Spreco, Armin
  • Eriksson, Olle
  • Dahlström, Örjan
  • Cowling, Benjamin John
  • Biggerstaff, Matthew
  • Ljunggren, Gunnar
  • Jöud, Anna
  • Istefan, Emanuel
  • Timpka, Toomas
Type
Published Article
Journal
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Publisher
Centers For Disease Control and Prevention
Publication Date
Nov 01, 2020
Volume
26
Issue
11
Pages
2669–2677
Identifiers
DOI: 10.3201/eid2611.200448
PMID: 33079036
Source
Medline
Keywords
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008-February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011-12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.

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