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A new prediction approach of the COVID-19 virus pandemic behavior with a hybrid ensemble modular nonlinear autoregressive neural network.

Authors
  • Melin, Patricia1
  • Monica, Julio Cesar1
  • Sanchez, Daniela1
  • Castillo, Oscar1
  • 1 Tijuana Institute of Technology, Tijuana, Mexico. , (Mexico)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Soft computing
Publication Date
Nov 19, 2020
Pages
1–10
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1007/s00500-020-05452-z
PMID: 33230389
Source
Medline
Keywords
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

We describe in this paper an approach for predicting the COVID-19 time series in the world using a hybrid ensemble modular neural network, which combines nonlinear autoregressive neural networks. At the level of the modular neural network, which is formed with several modules (ensembles in this case), the modules are designed to be efficient predictors for each country. In this case, an integrator is used to combine the outputs of the modules, in this way achieving the goal of predicting a set of countries. At the level of the ensembles, forming a part of the modular network, these are constituted by a set of modules, which are nonlinear autoregressive neural networks that are designed to be efficient predictors under particular conditions for each country. In each ensemble, the results of the modules are combined with an aggregator to achieve a better and improved result for the ensemble. Publicly available datasets of coronavirus cases around the globe from the last months have been used in the analysis. Interesting conclusions have been obtained that could be helpful in deciding the best strategies in dealing with this virus for countries in their fight against the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, the proposed approach could be helpful in proposing strategies for similar countries. © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020.

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