New energy technologies and emission reduction potential in Finland

Possible future development paths of the Finnish energy economy during the next few decades have been analyzed. The focus has been on the role of new energy conversion technologies, and potential efficiency improvements in the end-use of energy, as well as on the possibilities for reducing energy related emissions. A national energy system model developed at VTT Energy has been used as the main tool in the study. The model includes modules both for the energy supply and for the end-use sectors, and it is based on the methodology of the well-known EFOM family of energy models. A number of future scenarios has been defined for the analysis of potential developments in the energy system. The scenarios differ from each other according to assumptions on the penetration of new technologies, price levels of biomass fuels, alternative projections for the forest industries, energy taxes, CO2 emission targets, energy conservation measures, and additional nuclear power. Updated projections for the demand of useful energy have been made for each end-use sector. Apart from the base demand scenario, in some scenarios a higher or a lower growth in demand has been assumed. In the results of the study the impact of new energy technologies is shown particularly in the increased production of combined heat and power. The cogeneration of electricity within industry could be about doubled by the year 2010, and within the district heating sector it could be increased by 50%. The increases could be achieved mainly by raising the power to steam ratio with new and advanced technologies. Improved recovery boilers within the pulp and paper industry would alone account for a major part of the increase. Biomass gasification technologies offer still further potential for increased generation, but are not likely to have a prominent role by the year 2010 without a very rapid commercialization. Strategies for reducing CO2 emissions have been analyzed in a series of scenarios. According to the results, even a rapid development of new energy technologies together with decreased prices of biomass fuels and considerably high energy taxes will not achieve the targeted CO2 emission levels in the absence of additional nuclear power. Significant efficiency improvements in the end-use of energy would additionally be required, but such changes will be difficult to realize in practice. The results thus indicate that renouncing the stringent CO2 targets seems inevitable for Finland.