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The Negative Binomial Distribution as a Renewal Model for the Recurrence of Large Earthquakes

Authors
  • Tejedor, Alejandro1
  • Gómez, Javier B.2
  • Pacheco, Amalio F.3
  • 1 University of Minnesota, Saint Anthony Falls Laboratory, Department of Civil Engineering, 2 Third Avenue SE, Minneapolis, MN, 55455, USA , Minneapolis (United States)
  • 2 University of Zaragoza, Department of Earth Sciences, Zaragoza, 50009, Spain , Zaragoza (Spain)
  • 3 University of Zaragoza, Department of Theoretical Physics, Zaragoza, 50009, Spain , Zaragoza (Spain)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Pure and Applied Geophysics
Publisher
Springer Basel
Publication Date
Jun 26, 2014
Volume
172
Issue
1
Pages
23–31
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1007/s00024-014-0871-2
Source
Springer Nature
Keywords
License
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Abstract

The negative binomial distribution is presented as the waiting time distribution of a cyclic Markov model. This cycle simulates the seismic cycle in a fault. As an example, this model, which can describe recurrences with aperiodicities between 0 and 0.5, is used to fit the Parkfield, California earthquake series in the San Andreas Fault. The performance of the model in the forecasting is expressed in terms of error diagrams and compared with other recurrence models from literature.

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