Affordable Access

deepdyve-link
Publisher Website

Monte Carlo simulation of COVID-19 pandemic using Planck's probability distribution.

Authors
  • Amaro, José Enrique1
  • Orce, José Nicolás2
  • 1 Departamento de Física Atómica, Molecular y Nuclear and Instituto Carlos I de Física Teórica y Computacional, Universidad de Granada, E-18071 Granada, Spain. Electronic address: [email protected] , (Spain)
  • 2 Department of Physics & Astronomy, University of the Western Cape, P/B X17 Bellville ZA-7535, South Africa; National Institute for Theoretical and Computational Sciences (NITheCS), South Africa. Electronic address: [email protected] , (South Africa)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Bio Systems
Publication Date
Aug 01, 2022
Volume
218
Pages
104708–104708
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.biosystems.2022.104708
PMID: 35644321
Source
Medline
Keywords
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

We present a Monte Carlo simulation model of an epidemic spread inspired on physics variables such as temperature, cross section and interaction range, which considers the Plank distribution of photons in the black body radiation to describe the mobility of individuals. The model consists of a lattice of cells that can be in four different states: susceptible, infected, recovered or death. An infected cell can transmit the disease to any other susceptible cell within some random range R. The transmission mechanism follows the physics laws for the interaction between a particle and a target. Each infected particle affects the interaction region a number n of times, according to its energy. The number of interactions is proportional to the interaction cross section σ and to the target surface density ρ. The discrete energy follows a Planck distribution law, which depends on the temperature T of the system. For any interaction, infection, recovery and death probabilities are applied. We investigate the results of viral transmission for different sets of parameters and compare them with available COVID-19 data. The parameters of the model can be made time dependent in order to consider, for instance, the effects of lockdown in the middle of the pandemic. Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Report this publication

Statistics

Seen <100 times