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Modeling and forecasting of principal minerals production

  • Saadat, Sunila1
  • Hussain, Ijaz1
  • Faisal, Muhammad2, 3
  • 1 Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan , Islamabad (Pakistan)
  • 2 University of Bradford, Bradford, BD7 1DP, UK , Bradford (United Kingdom)
  • 3 Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Bradford, UK , Bradford (United Kingdom)
Published Article
Arabian Journal of Geosciences
Publication Date
Apr 30, 2021
DOI: 10.1007/s12517-021-07135-x
Springer Nature


Although coal reserves are abundant in Pakistan, still share of gas and oil is about 65% in the energy mix. Pakistan, despite being a mineral-enriched country, is facing an alarming situation as its power generation is based on foreign exchange. The mineral sector of Pakistan is dominated by four principal minerals which are gas, oil, gypsum, and coal, while gypsum being a source of reclamation and poverty reduction. There is a strong need to analyze and forecast the production of these four principal minerals to cope up with emerging challenges. Data contains 114 observations from the period of July 2005 to December 2014, measured in terms of metric tonnes (MT). In parametric models, Box-Jenkins (B-J) methodology, a regression model with auto-regressive errors (ARAR), and Holt-Winter (HW) method are used to model. In nonparametric models, univariate singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and multivariate SSA (MSSA) modeling approach are applied. Data is split into train and test data in order to specify a suitable model for forecasting. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and Theil’s U statistic are utilized as the measure of accuracy. For gas and coal, HW model is a suitable model to forecast. For gypsum and oil, Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (Box Jenkins ARIMA) and MSSA provide more accurate predictions, respectively. The forecasts for gas and gypsum as compared to 2014 are expected to be approximately 11 % and 45 %, respectively, more in 2020. In 2020, the forecasts of oil are expected to be eight times more than in 2014. The production of coal in 2020 is expected to decrease 12 % than in 2014. There is a strong need to optimize the production of coal by providing incentives for exploration and mining. The stakeholders should make serious efforts to bring the production of coal at an optimum level such as by providing modern equipment and high incentives to promote coal mining and exploration.

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