Affordable Access

deepdyve-link
Publisher Website

Land reversion and zoonotic spillover risk.

Authors
  • Vinson, John E1, 2
  • Gottdenker, Nicole L2, 3
  • Chaves, Luis Fernando4
  • Kaul, RajReni B1, 2
  • Kramer, Andrew M2, 5
  • Drake, John M1, 2
  • Hall, Richard J1, 2, 6
  • 1 Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA. , (Georgia)
  • 2 Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA. , (Georgia)
  • 3 Department of Veterinary Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA. , (Georgia)
  • 4 Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Apartado Postal 0816-15 02593, Panamá, República de Panamá.
  • 5 Department of Integrative Biology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620, USA.
  • 6 Department of Infectious Diseases, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA. , (Georgia)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Royal Society Open Science
Publisher
The Royal Society
Publication Date
Jun 01, 2022
Volume
9
Issue
6
Pages
220582–220582
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.220582
PMID: 35706674
Source
Medline
Keywords
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

Deforestation alters wildlife communities and modifies human-wildlife interactions, often increasing zoonotic spillover potential. When deforested land reverts to forest, species composition differences between primary and regenerating (secondary) forest could alter spillover risk trajectory. We develop a mathematical model of land-use change, where habitats differ in their relative spillover risk, to understand how land reversion influences spillover risk. We apply this framework to scenarios where spillover risk is higher in deforested land than mature forest, reflecting higher relative abundance of highly competent species and/or increased human-wildlife encounters, and where regenerating forest has either very low or high spillover risk. We find the forest regeneration rate, the spillover risk of regenerating forest relative to deforested land, and how rapidly regenerating forest regains attributes of mature forest determine landscape-level spillover risk. When regenerating forest has a much lower spillover risk than deforested land, reversion lowers cumulative spillover risk, but instaneous spillover risk peaks earlier. However, when spillover risk is high in regenerating and cleared habitats, landscape-level spillover risk remains high, especially when cleared land is rapidly abandoned then slowly regenerates to mature forest. These results suggest that proactive wildlife management and awareness of human exposure risk in regenerating forests could be important tools for spillover mitigation. © 2022 The Authors.

Report this publication

Statistics

Seen <100 times