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Influences of reopening businesses and social venues: COVID-19 incidence rate in East Texas county.

Authors
  • Le, Tuan D1, 2
  • Bosworth, Michele3, 4, 5
  • Ledlow, Gerald4
  • Le, Tony T1
  • Bell, Jeffrey5
  • Singh, Karan P1
  • 1 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Community and Rural Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Tyler, Tyler, Texas, USA.
  • 2 U.S. Army Institute of Surgical Research, JBSA-Fort Sam Houston, San Antonio, Texas, USA.
  • 3 Center for Population Health, Analytics and Quality Advancement, School of Community and Rural Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Tyler, Tyler, Texas, USA.
  • 4 Department of Healthcare Policy, Economics and Management, School of Community and Rural Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Tyler, Tyler, Texas, USA.
  • 5 Department of Family Medicine, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Tyler, Tyler, Texas, USA.
Type
Published Article
Journal
Epidemiology and Infection
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
Publication Date
Jan 18, 2021
Volume
149
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268821000121
PMID: 33455588
Source
Medline
Keywords
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

As the on-going severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic, we aimed to understand whether economic reopening (EROP) significantly influenced coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence. COVID-19 data from Texas Health and Human Services between March and August 2020 were analysed. COVID-19 incidence rate (cases per 100 000 population) was compared to statewide for selected urban and rural counties. We used joinpoint regression analysis to identify changes in trends of COVID-19 incidence and interrupted time-series analyses for potential impact of state EROP orders on COVID-19 incidence. We found that the incidence rate increased to 145.1% (95% CI 8.4-454.5%) through 4th April, decreased by 15.5% (95% CI -24.4 -5.9%) between 5th April and 30th May, increased by 93.1% (95% CI 60.9-131.8%) between 31st May and 11th July and decreased by 13.2% (95% CI -22.2 -3.2%) after 12 July 2020. The study demonstrates the EROP policies significantly impacted trends in COVID-19 incidence rates and accounted for increases of 129.9 and 164.6 cases per 100 000 populations for the 24- or 17-week model, respectively, along with other county and state reopening ordinances. The incidence rate decreased sharply after 12th July considering the emphasis on a facemask or covering requirement in business and social settings.

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