The Impact of the Inclusion of Social Dimensions on Decision-Making in the Dutch Heat Transition: an Empirical Study

We find ourselves at a crossroads; without immediate and deep emissions reductions, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will be impossible. For the Netherlands to achieve its climate targets, Dutch municipalities have been delegated the crucial task of the heat transition. Prior research reveals that the Dutch energy transition and policy documents are often techno-economic centred and hardly stress citizens’ central role. However, it remains a thoroughly social affair as changes in energy technologies are accompanied by societal ramifications, and the exclusion of social aspects (public support and energy justice) has detrimental societal effects. This research aims to evaluate the impact of including social information in the information provided for the decision-making process on decisions made by local Dutch policymakers for the heat transition.<br/> <br/>Central to this thesis was the following main question: “What is the impact of including social information in the information provided for decision-making processes on the social responsibility of policymakers’ decisions for the heat transition?”. To assess this impact, interviews were conducted, and a 1x2 between-subjects experiment was set up where participants were randomly allocated to one of two conditions: group A: exposure to only technical and economic information, and group B: exposure to technical, economic and social information. With a Mann-Whitney U test, it was determined whether there were differences between the two groups.<br/><br/>The results of this study indicated that the inclusion of social aspects leads to more socially responsible decisions in the heat transition for nine out of 20 neighbourhoods, meaning that neighbourhoods with specific social characteristics are prioritised more than after including this information. These neighbourhoods often had extreme values for the social indicators. For example, neighbourhoods with high public participation or support were prioritised more. Future research should study which social factors increase residents’ participation or public support so policymakers can meaningfully include such social indicators for heat transition decision-making. Another interesting finding is that many policymakers (and therefore municipalities) seemed to have diverging approaches to the heat transition. Future studies should research what causes these differences between municipalities by focusing on personal (of the policymaker) or organisational (of the municipality) characteristics.<br/><br/> / Engineering and Policy Analysis