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The impact of implementing HIV prevention policies therapy and control strategy among HIV and AIDS incidence cases in Malaysia

  • Apenteng, Ofosuhene O.1
  • Osei, Prince P.2
  • Oduro, Bismark3
  • Kwabla, Mavis Pearl4, 5
  • Ismail, Noor Azina6
  • 1 Division for Global Surveillance, Research Group for Genomic Epidemiology, National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
  • 2 Department of Statistics, University of Haifa, Mount Carmel, Haifa, 31905, Israel
  • 3 Department of Mathematics and Physical Sciences, California University of Pennsylvania, California, PA, 15419, USA
  • 4 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana
  • 5 Department for Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany
  • 6 Department of Applied Statistics, Faculty of Economics & Administration, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Published Article
Infectious Disease Modelling
KeAi Publishing
Publication Date
Sep 30, 2020
DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.09.009
PMID: 33073067
PMCID: PMC7536735
PubMed Central


Malaysia is faced with a high HIV/AIDS burden that poses a public health threat. We constructed and applied a compartmental model to understand the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in Malaysia. A simple model for HIV and AIDS disease that incorporates condom and uncontaminated needle-syringes interventions and addresses the relative impact of given treatment therapy for infected HIV newborns on reducing HIV and AIDS incidence is presented. We demonstrated how treatment therapy for new-born babies and the use of condoms or uncontaminated needle-syringes impact the dynamics of HIV in Malaysia. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia from 1986 to 2011. The epidemiological parameters are estimated using Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The reproduction number optimal for control of the HIV/AIDS disease obtained suggests that the disease-free equilibrium was unstable during the 25 years. However, the results indicated that the use of condoms and uncontaminated needle-syringes are pivotal intervention control strategies; a comprehensive adoption of the intervention may help stop the spread of HIV disease. Treatment therapy for newborn babies is also of high value; it reduces the epidemic peak. The combined effect of condom use or uncontaminated needle-syringe is more pronounced in controlling the spread of HIV/AIDS.

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