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Immunity after COVID-19: Protection or sensitization?

Authors
  • Danchin, Antoine1
  • Turinici, Gabriel2
  • 1 Kodikos Labs, Institut Cochin, 75014, Paris, France. Electronic address: [email protected] , (France)
  • 2 CEREMADE, Université Paris Dauphine - PSL, Paris 75016, France. Electronic address: [email protected] , (France)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Mathematical biosciences
Publication Date
Oct 28, 2020
Pages
108499–108499
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108499
PMID: 33129826
Source
Medline
Keywords
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

Motivated by historical and present clinical observations, we discuss the possible unfavorable evolution of the immunity (similar to documented antibody-dependent enhancement scenarios) after a first infection with COVID-19. More precisely we ask the question of how the epidemic outcomes are affected if the initial infection does not provide immunity but rather sensitization to future challenges. We first provide background comparison with the 2003 SARS epidemic. Then we use a compartmental epidemic model structured by immunity level that we fit to available data; using several scenarios of the fragilization dynamics, we derive quantitative insights into the additional expected numbers of severe cases and deaths. Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Inc.

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