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From birth expectations to birth forecasts: a partial-adjustment approach.

Authors
  • De Beer, J
Type
Published Article
Journal
Mathematical population studies
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1991
Volume
3
Issue
2
Pages
127–144
Identifiers
PMID: 12284348
Source
Medline
Keywords
License
Unknown

Abstract

"As women's expectations about their own future fertility tend to deviate systematically from realizations, these expectations cannot be used directly for forecasting purposes. This paper discusses a partial-adjustment approach for deriving forecasts from the expectations. The sensitivity of the results to various assumptions is examined. Empirical results obtained for the Netherlands seem promising."

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