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Forecasting COVID-19 Chile' second outbreak by a generalized SIR model with constant time delays and a fitted positivity rate.

Authors
  • Cumsille, Patricio1, 2
  • Rojas-Díaz, Óscar3, 4
  • de Espanés, Pablo Moisset2
  • Verdugo-Hernández, Paula5
  • 1 Department of Basic Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, University of Bío-Bío Campus Fernando May, Av. Andrés Bello 720, Casilla 447, Chillán, Chile. , (Chile)
  • 2 Centre for Biotechnology and Bioengineering (CeBiB) University of Chile, Beaucheff 851, Santiago, Chile. , (Chile)
  • 3 Neurovision AI, San Eugenio 3494, Santiago, Chile. , (Chile)
  • 4 Department of Informatics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Santiago of Chile, Santiago, Chile. , (Chile)
  • 5 Escuela de Pedagogía en Ciencias Naturales y Exactas, Facultad de Ciencias de la Educación, Universidad de Talca, Chile. , (Chile)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2022
Volume
193
Pages
1–18
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2021.09.016
PMID: 34608351
Source
Medline
Keywords
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

The COVID-19 disease has forced countries to make a considerable collaborative effort between scientists and governments to provide indicators to suitable follow-up the pandemic's consequences. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in quantifying indicators describing diverse aspects of the pandemic. Consequently, this work aims to develop a clear, efficient, and reproducible methodology for parameter optimization, whose implementation is illustrated using data from three representative regions from Chile and a suitable generalized SIR model together with a fitted positivity rate. Our results reproduce the general trend of the infected's curve, distinguishing the reported and real cases. Finally, our methodology is robust, and it allows us to forecast a second outbreak of COVID-19 and the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 qualitatively according to the reported dead cases. © 2021 International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (IMACS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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