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Forecasting ability of a multi-renewal seismicity model for Italy

  • Molchan, G.
  • Romashkova, L.
Publication Date
Jul 12, 2013
Submission Date
Jul 12, 2013
DOI: 10.1007/s00024-014-0796-9
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The inter-event time, IET, is sometimes used as a basis for prediction of large earthquakes. It is the case when theoretical analysis of prediction is possible. Quite recently a specific IET- model was suggested for dynamic probabilistic prediction of M > 5.5 events in Italy . In this study we analyze both some aspects of the statistical estimation of the model and its predictive ability. We find that more or less effective prediction is possible within 4 out of 34 seismotectonic zones where seismicity rate or clustering of events is relatively high. We show that, in the framework of the model, one can suggest a simple zone independent strategy, which practically optimizes the relative number of nonaccidental successes, or the Hanssen-Kuiper, HK, skill score. This quasi-optimal strategy declares alarm in a zone for the first 2.67 years just after the occurrence of each large event in the zone. The optimal HK skill score values are: 26% for the 3 most active zones and 2-10% for the 26 least active zones. However, the number of false alarm time intervals per one event in each of the zones is unusually high: 0.7 and 0.8-0.95 respectively. Both these theoretical estimations are important because any prospective testing of the model is unrealistic in most of the zones during a reasonable time. This particular analysis requires a discussion of the following issues of general interest: a specific approach to the analysis of predictions vs. the standard CSEP testing approach; prediction vs. forecasting; HK skill score vs. probability gain; the total forecast error diagram and connected false alarms.

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