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Ageing and fiscal policies in the European Union. Preliminary draft

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  • Economics

Abstract

~ '·· '· / / Executive Summary 1. Introduction / A~EING AND FISCAL POLICIES .. ; AiN,THE EUROPEAN UNION D. Franco - T. Muiizi . .. European Commission Preliminary draft Contents t£lD\IG 2. Indicators of medium and long-term trends· in public budgets 2.1 Projections of age-related public expenditure 2.1.1 Mechanical projections of the effects of demographic changes I Box 1: Main international projec~ions of age-related public expenditure 2.1.2 Projections considering non..;demographic factors · I Box 2: National. projections of age-relat~d public expenditure . 2.1.3 Estimates of sustainable primary balances and tax-gaps 2.2 Generational Accounting studies I Box 3: .Tne methodology of Generational Accounting 3. Mechanical effects of demographic changes on public expenditure 3.1 The methodology . 3 .1.1 The expenditure profiles I Box 4: Age-related expenditure profiles 3.1.2 The projections I Box 5: Indices of the burden of age-related expenditure on citizens ·of working-age 3.2 The results: the burden on working-age population: 3.2.1 Baseline economic and demographic projections 3 .2.2 Alternative dynamics of per-capita expenditure 3.2.3 Alternative demographic scenarios 4. National estimates of pension expenditure trends I Box 6: Factors influencing pension expenditure 5. Primary balance trends and budgetary adjusments: tentative estimates 5.1 Public expenditure, primary balances and budgetary adjustments: baseline scenario 5 .1.1 Age-related public expenditure collsvs Text Box collsvs Text Box collsvs Text Box collsvs Text Box User Rectangle User Rectangle 5.1.2-Primary balances SJ ;'3 Debt to GDP ratio . ' s;:1.4 The. adjustment required by '~Close-to-balance'' policies. 5.1.5 Tax-gaps and Comparisons ofaltemative fiscal policies 5.2 Alternative scenarios 5.2.1 Temporary expenditure and revenue items 5.2.2 Different macroeconomic scenarios: sensitivity amilysis 5.2:3 Different initial budgetary condi

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