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Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms



Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms Daniel Ellsberg The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 75, No. 4. (Nov., 1961), pp. 643-669. Stable URL: The Quarterly Journal of Economics is currently published by The MIT Press. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. The JSTOR Archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long-term preservation and access to leading academic journals and scholarly literature from around the world. The Archive is supported by libraries, scholarly societies, publishers, and foundations. It is an initiative of JSTOR, a not-for-profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community take advantage of advances in technology. For more information regarding JSTOR, please contact [email protected] Mon Feb 25 14:43:09 2008 RISK, AMBIGUITY, AND THE SAVAGE AXIOMS* I. Are there uncertainties that are not risks? 643.-11. Uncertainties that are not risks, 647. -111. Why are some uncertainties not risks? -656. There has always been a good deal of skepticism about the behavioral significance of Frank Knight's distinction between "meas- urable uncertainty" or "risk," which may be represented by numeri- cal probabilities, and "unmeasurable u

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