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L'évaluation des seuils critiques de transmission du paludisme en zone d'endémie stable

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Keywords
  • Paludisme
  • Epidemiologie
  • Transmission
  • Infection
  • Incidence
  • Analyse Mathematique
  • Lutte
  • Seuil Critique
  • Anopheles Gambiae
  • Plasmodium Falciparum

Abstract

L'évaluation des seuils critiques de transmission du paludisme en zone d'endémie stable Rev. Epidém. et Santé Publ., 1982, 30, 49-70. L’évaluation des seuils critiques de transmission du paludisme en zone d-”endémie stable. P. CARNEVALE (l), M. LALLEMANT (l), M. MOLINIER (l) , J. MOUCHET (2), J. COZ (2). Mots clés : Paludisme. Epidémiologie. Seuils critiques. Lutte. Key miords : Malaria. Epidemiology. Critical levels. Control. The evaluation of the critical levels of maluria transmission in a stable endemic area. SUMMARY. During a longitudinal survey done in the degraded forest area south of Brazzaville (People’s Republic of the Congo), it appeared that plasmodic index o f preschoolchildren was always lower than 50 90 in spite of an inoculation rate of about one infected bite per child per night all aloizg the yem. The actual incidence rate estimated with Mueizch model was 11 = 0,015 while the recovery rate was = 0,032 (i.e. about three tintes faster than the usual values admitted since Mac Donald work) for yoiiitg children ( O to 4 years old). A contputer study has shown that an incidence of hl = 0,0012 was enough for the “infection” of children (Ross model) wliile an incidence of h2 = 0,0014 would induce a situation of superinfection (Dietz et al. model). Therefore the actual incidence was 10 to 12 times higher than the critical values of the incidence rate. To decrease the malaria transmission nt a level lower than the critical values i.e. to obtain a reproduction rate below I tlze calculations and graphes have shown that anoplzeline density or human gaiizetocytaeniia have to be reduced by about 90 96. while the survival rate of the vectors must be ,reduced by about 12 36. Therefore it appeared that the determination o f the critical levels of every parameters of malaria transmission is a needful stage for a better planification of any malaria control programme. RESUME. Une Ctnde Jongitudinale en zone de forêt dbgradée en République Popu-

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