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Exploring the effects of PM2.5 and temperature on COVID-19 transmission in Seoul, South Korea.

Authors
  • Lym, Youngbin1
  • Kim, Ki-Jung2
  • 1 Center for Innovation Strategy and Policy, KAIST, South Korea. , (North Korea)
  • 2 Department of Smart Car Engineering, Doowon Technical University, South Korea. Electronic address: [email protected] , (North Korea)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Environmental Research
Publisher
Elsevier
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2022
Volume
203
Pages
111810–111810
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111810
PMID: 34343550
Source
Medline
Keywords
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

With a recent surge of the new severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2, COVID-19) in South Korea, this study attempts to investigate the effects of environmental conditions such as air pollutants (PM2.5) and meteorological covariate (Temperature) on COVID-19 transmission in Seoul. To account for unobserved heterogeneity in the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 across 25 contiguous districts within Seoul, we adopt a full Bayesian hierarchical approach for the generalized linear mixed models. A formal statistical analysis suggests that there exists a positive correlation between a 7-day lagged effect of PM2.5 concentration and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, which implies an elevated risk of the infectious disease. Conversely, temperature has shown a negative correlation with the number of COVID-19 cases, leading to reduction in relative risks. In addition, we clarify that the random fluctuation in the relative risks of COVID-19 mainly originates from temporal aspects, whereas no significant evidence of variability in relative risks is observed in terms of spatial alignment of the 25 districts. Nevertheless, this study provides empirical evidence using model-based formal assessments regarding COVID-19 infection risks in 25 districts of Seoul from a different perspective. Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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