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Ensaios sobre o II Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico

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Repositório Digital Institucional da UFPR
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  • Crescimento E Desenvolvimento Economico
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Abstract

Abstract: The goal of this paper is understand the main controversies about the economic rationality of implement the II PND project and the results of this plan in the Brazilian economy in the subsequent years, especially the 1980's, as well analyse the wage and job spacial distribution impact in the regions that receive some of the leading projects. Is made a discussion about the literature of Geisel's economic project, also a VECM model is adjusted for analyse the relationship between current account, capability to import and investment rate, at least a MQO and logit model are adjusted with censo 2010 database. Te main results are: (i) II PND it is not a decisive factor in the long run outcome of current account, capability to import and investment rate; (ii) In the long run an increase in the capability to import rise importation; (iii) The II PND projects analysed had a small impact over wages in the long run; and (iv) the workers that live in the microregions that receive II PND projects are more likely to work in the manufacture sector. Keywords: Brazilian economy, vector autoregression , ordinary least square

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