Affordable Access

Access to the full text

Efficient testing of earthquake forecasting models

Authors
  • Rhoades, David
  • Schorlemmer, Danijel
  • Gerstenberger, Matthew
  • Christophersen, Annemarie
  • Zechar, J.
  • Imoto, Masajiro
Type
Published Article
Journal
Acta Geophysica
Publisher
Versita
Publication Date
May 01, 2011
Volume
59
Issue
4
Pages
728–747
Identifiers
DOI: 10.2478/s11600-011-0013-5
Source
De Gruyter
Keywords
License
Green

Abstract

Computationally efficient alternatives are proposed to the likelihood-based tests employed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability for assessing the performance of earthquake likelihood models in the earthquake forecast testing centers. For the conditional L-test, which tests the consistency of the earthquake catalogue with a model, an exact test using convolutions of distributions is available when the number of earthquakes in the test period is small, and the central limit theorem provides an approximate test when the number of earthquakes is large. Similar methods are available for the R-test, which compares the likelihoods of two competing models. However, the R-test, like the N-test and L-test, is fundamentally a test of consistency of data with a model. We propose an alternative test, based on the classical paired t-test, to more directly compare the likelihoods of two models. Although approximate and predicated on a normality assumption, this new T-test is not computer-intensive, is easier to interpret than the R-test, and becomes increasingly dependable as the number of earthquakes increases.

Report this publication

Statistics

Seen <100 times