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Ecological forecast of changes in the state of aquatic ecosystems

Authors
  • Bulgakov, N. G.1
  • Maksimov, V. N.1
  • Levich, A. P.1
  • Yuzbekov, A. K.1
  • Risnik, D. V.1
  • 1 Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia , Moscow (Russia)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Biology Bulletin Reviews
Publisher
SP MAIK Nauka/Interperiodica
Publication Date
May 05, 2011
Volume
1
Issue
2
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1134/S2079086411020034
Source
Springer Nature
Keywords
License
Yellow

Abstract

A literary review devoted to the methods of ecological forecast is presented. A classification of forecasts is made according to the degree of system homogeneity (point or distributed), the period of forecast (short-term, medium-term, and long-term), and the level of detail. Qualitative and quantitative methods of forecast are distinguished. The qualitative methods include morphological analysis, the method of expert evaluation, and the analog method. The quantitative methods imply modeling intended for quantitative forecast (estimation) of indicative biological characteristics using imitation and regression methods.

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