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Early dynamics of transmission and projections of COVID-19 in some West African countries

Authors
  • Assob-Nguedia, Jules-Clement1
  • Dongo, David2
  • Nguimkeu, Pierre Evariste3
  • 1 Faculty of Medicine and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Douala, Cameroon
  • 2 Department of Mathematics & Computer Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Dschang, Cameroon
  • 3 Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, USA
Type
Published Article
Journal
Infectious Disease Modelling
Publisher
KeAi Publishing
Publication Date
Oct 17, 2020
Volume
5
Pages
839–847
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.10.006
PMID: 33102989
PMCID: PMC7568512
Source
PubMed Central
License
Unknown

Abstract

The initial cases of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) were identified in most West African countries between late February and early March of 2020. But it is only after March 15, 2020 that the number of cases started rising significantly in these countries. This study analyzes the transmission dynamics of the outbreak in West Africa nearly 5 months after the effective onset. We focus on Cameroon, Ghana, Guinea and Nigeria, which are the four West African countries with the highest numbers of infected cases. We combine models of mathematical epidemiology and publicly available data to estimate the main disease transmission characteristics. In particular, we estimate the initial doubling time, the peak time, the peak rate, the final size and the short-term transmission forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic for these countries. Policy implications for the effectiveness of control measures and for assessing the potential impact on public health in West Africa are discussed.

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