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Early adulthood psychiatric diagnoses and the subsequent risk of life-time incarceration: a cohort study.

Authors
  • Walsh, Sophie D1
  • Dohrenwend, Bruce P2, 3
  • Levav, Itzhak4
  • Weiser, Mark5
  • Gal, Gilad6
  • 1 Department of Criminology, Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan5290002, Israel. , (Israel)
  • 2 Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University and New York State Psychiatric Institute, New York, New York, USA.
  • 3 Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
  • 4 Department of Community Mental Health, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel. , (Israel)
  • 5 Departments of Psychiatry, The Sackler School of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv and the Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel. , (Israel)
  • 6 School of Behavioral Sciences, Tel Aviv-Yaffo Academic College, Tel Aviv, Israel. , (Israel)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Psychological Medicine
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
Publication Date
Aug 01, 2020
Volume
50
Issue
11
Pages
1906–1913
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1017/S0033291719002009
PMID: 31422774
Source
Medline
Keywords
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

The association between incarceration and psychiatric disorders has been noted. Yet, existing studies are cross-sectional or examine the risk of recidivism, which has limited the predictive validity of psychiatric disorders as a risk factor for incarceration. To overcome this limitation, this study used a prospective cohort to examine whether psychiatric diagnoses in early adulthood predicted incarceration throughout a 30-year follow-up. It tested the association between psychiatric diagnoses with future incarcerations, their number and durations, controlling for education and ethnic status. This study merged data from three sources in Israel: a prospective 10-year birth cohort study of young adults aged 25-34, conducted in the 1980s (N = 4914) that included a psychiatric interview; data from the Prison Service, including the cause, number and duration of incarcerations; and from the Vital Statistics Registry on death records. Multivariate analysis showed that substance-use disorders, antisocial personality and lower levels of education predicted future incarceration, their number and maximum duration. The remainder diagnoses were not significantly associated with future incarceration. Results limited the prediction of future incarcerations to persons diagnosed with substance use and antisocial personality, and do not support an independent predictive association between additional psychiatric diagnoses and future incarceration.

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