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The diversity of population responses to environmental change

Authors
  • Colchero, Fernando1, 1
  • Jones, Owen R.1, 1
  • Conde, Dalia A.1, 1,
  • Hodgson, David2
  • Zajitschek, Felix3
  • Schmidt, Benedikt R.4, 5
  • Malo, Aurelio F.6, 7
  • Alberts, Susan C.8, 9
  • Becker, Peter H.
  • Bouwhuis, Sandra
  • Bronikowski, Anne M.10
  • De Vleeschouwer, Kristel M.11
  • Delahay, Richard J.12
  • Dummermuth, Stefan5
  • Fernández‐Duque, Eduardo13
  • Frisenvænge, John14
  • Hesselsøe, Martin14
  • Larson, Sam15
  • Lemaître, Jean‐François16
  • McDonald, Jennifer2
  • And 12 more
  • 1 University of Southern Denmark, Denmark , (Denmark)
  • 2 Cornwall Campus, Penryn, UK , (United Kingdom)
  • 3 University of New South Wales, Australia , (Australia)
  • 4 University of Zurich, Switzerland , (Switzerland)
  • 5 UniMail, Switzerland , (Switzerland)
  • 6 University of Oxford, UK , (United Kingdom)
  • 7 Universidad de Alcalá, Spain , (Spain)
  • 8 Duke University, USA , (United States)
  • 9 National Museums of Kenya, Kenya , (Kenya)
  • 10 Iowa State University, USA , (United States)
  • 11 Koningin Astridplein, Belgium , (Belgium)
  • 12 Animal and Plant Health Agency, UK , (United Kingdom)
  • 13 Yale University, USA , (United States)
  • 14 Amphi Consult, Denmark , (Denmark)
  • 15 University of Pennsylvania, USA , (United States)
  • 16 Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, France , (France)
  • 17 Pennsylvania State University, USA , (United States)
  • 18 Te Papa Atawhai, New Zealand , (New Zealand)
  • 19 University of Minnesota, USA , (United States)
  • 20 University of Toronto, Canada , (Canada)
  • 21 CEH Wallingford, UK , (United Kingdom)
  • 22 University of Tasmania, Australia , (Australia)
  • 23 CNRS, France , (France)
  • 24 University of Fribourg, Switzerland , (Switzerland)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Ecology Letters
Publisher
Wiley (Blackwell Publishing)
Publication Date
Dec 09, 2018
Volume
22
Issue
2
Pages
342–353
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13195
PMID: 30536594
PMCID: PMC6378614
Source
PubMed Central
Keywords
License
Unknown
External links

Abstract

The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever‐greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well‐advanced theory of age‐structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age‐dependency in demographic rates and the year‐to‐year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age‐specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage‐ vs. age‐based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival‐fecundity‐trade‐offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age‐specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.

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