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[Demographic crises in France at the end of the seventeenth century and during the eighteenth century: an attempt at estimation].

Authors
Type
Published Article
Journal
Histoire & mesure
Publication Date
Volume
8
Issue
1-2
Pages
117–144
Identifiers
PMID: 12287210
Source
Medline
Keywords
  • Critique
  • Demographic Factors
  • Demographic Impact
  • Demography
  • Developed Countries
  • Diseases
  • Epidemics
  • Europe
  • Excess Mortality
  • Famine
  • Food Supply
  • France
  • Historical Demography
  • Mediterranean Countries
  • Methodological Studies
  • Mortality
  • Natural Resources
  • Population
  • Population Dynamics
  • Population Growth
  • Social Sciences
  • Western Europe

Abstract

The author first reviews methods used to measure and quantify the demographic impact of various crises, such as famines or epidemics, which affected populations in the past. Having identified the limitations of those methods, he proposes an alternative based on ARIMA models, and applies it to French data for the period 1670-1789. Various demographic crises affecting mortality that occurred during this period are identified, together with intervening periods of population growth. The author uses this analysis to challenge the concept of auto-regulation of the populations of the ancien regime.

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