The author first reviews methods used to measure and quantify the demographic impact of various crises, such as famines or epidemics, which affected populations in the past. Having identified the limitations of those methods, he proposes an alternative based on ARIMA models, and applies it to French data for the period 1670-1789. Various demographic crises affecting mortality that occurred during this period are identified, together with intervening periods of population growth. The author uses this analysis to challenge the concept of auto-regulation of the populations of the ancien regime.
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This record was last updated on 07/02/2016 and may not reflect the most current and accurate biomedical/scientific data available from NLM.
The corresponding record at NLM can be accessed at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12287210