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International Relative Prices and Civil Wars in Africa: A Note

  • Mathematics


The key idea of this paper is that the relative price of primary commodities in terms of manufactured goods affects the likelihood of actual conflicts. The empirical application focused on a panel of Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1995-2006. Results are not fully conclusive. However, there is robust evidence that a proxy of world price of manufactured goods is negatively associated with the likelihood of a civil war. The conclusion would be that an increase in world prices of manufactured goods would make civil wars less likely.

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