General introduction to simulation models

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General introduction to simulation models

Technical University of Denmark
  • Ethics
  • Subsequently
  • However
  • Furthermore
  • Type
  • Instead
  • Monte Carlo Simulation Can Be Defined As A Representation Of Real Life Systems To Gain Insight Into
  • Models Are A Simplification Of A System
  • Most Often
  • It Is Best To Use Experiments And Field Trials To Investigate The Effect Of Alternative Conditions O
  • Nonetheless
  • Field Trials Are Expensive And Sometimes Not Possible To Conduct
  • As In Case Of Foot-And-Mouth Disease (Fmd)
  • Simulation Models Can Be A Good And Cheap Substitute For Experiments And Field Trials
  • If Simulation Models Would Be Used
  • Good Quality Input Data Must Be Available
  • <Br/>To Model Fmd
  • Several Disease Spread Models Are Available
  • For This Project
  • We Chose Three Simulation Model
  • Davis Animal Disease Spread (Dads)
  • That Has Been Upgraded To Dtu-Dads
  • Interspread Plus (Isp) And The North American Animal Disease Spread Model (Naadsm)
  • The Models Are Rather Data Intensive
  • But In Varying Degrees
  • They Generally Demand Data On The Farm Level
  • Including Farm Location
  • Number Of Animals
  • And Movement And Contact Frequency To Other Farms
  • <Br/>To Be Able To Generate A Useful Model Of Fmd Spread That Can Provide Useful And Trustworthy Adv
  • There Are Four Important Issues
  • Which The Model Should Represent: 1) The Herd Structure Of The Country In Question
  • 2) The Dynamics Of Animal Movements And Contacts Between Herds
  • 3) The Biology Of The Disease
  • And 4) The Regulations Attached To The Occurrence Of The Disease
  • Model Inputs Are Usually Given In Distributions To Represent Biological Variability As Well As Uncer
  • Model Outputs Are Usually Given As Distributions
  • Sometimes With Wide Ranges
  • <Br/>Use Of Modeling Will Help Us To Gain Insight To A System As Well As Support Decision Making
  • Several Other Factors Affect Decision Making Such As
  • Politics And Economics
  • The Insight Gained When Models Are Build Leads To Point Out Areas Where Knowledge Is Lacking


General introduction to simulation models - DTU Orbit (26/04/14) General introduction to simulation models - DTU Orbit (26/04/14) Hisham Beshara Halasa T, Boklund A. General introduction to simulation models. In Optimizing the control of foot-and- mouth disease in Denmark by simulation: Final report. Kgs. Lyngby: Technical University of Denmark. 2012. p. 13-14.

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