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Are we at the beginning of a new long term expansion induced by technological change? Economic Papers No. 85, August 1991

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  • Linguistics

Abstract

BCN IC HPBRS COMMISSIOTII OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUTIITIES O OIRECTORATE-GEI{ERAL FOR ECOTTOMIC AND FIIUANCIAT AFFAIBS Number 85 August 1991 Are we at the beginning of a new long term expansion induced by technological change? Angelo Reati* Internal Paper "Economic Papers" are written by the Staff of the Directorate' General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in assoc iation with them. The "Papers" are intended to increase awareness of the technical work being done by the staff and to seek comments and suggesfions for f urther analyses' They may not be quoted without authorisation. Views expressed represent exclusivety the positions of the author and do not necessa rily correspond with those of the Commission of the European Communities. Comments and enquiries should be addressed to: The Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Commission of the European Communities, 200, rue de la Loi 1049 Brussels, Belgium ECONOMIC PAPERS Number85 August 1991 Are we at the beginning of a new long term expansion induced by technological change? Angelo Reati* Internal Paper * Principal Administrator at the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. The author wishes to thank P. Buigues, A. Dramais, I. Gouverneur, M. Macioti, M. Mou, R. Mouink, M. Ricottilli and P. Skott for conunenting on the fli'St version of the paper. He also thanks R. Petrella for a very useful discussion at the beginning of this work. He is grateful to D. Blades, M. Hainaut, R. Nilsson and G. Salou of OECD for providing some data and to D. Gordon for the linguistic revision. 11/304/90/Rev 2 This paper exists in English only. Summary List of Tables List of Figures CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 PART I : The lessons from the past : empirical evidence and theories 3 I. The long waves : a real phenomenon 1 3 1. 2. 3. Chronology of long waves The empirical evidence : rejections The empirical evidence : confirmations 3 4 7 l

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