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Cyclical and Causal Patterns of Inflation and GDP Growth



Empirical foundations for the view that high inflation impairs GDP growth are examined using annual data for 115 countries over the period 1960-1995. Taking into account country heterogeneity and time-specific symmetric shocks, as well as endogeneity of inflation and dynamics of GDP growth we estimate dynamic panel-data models of the effects of inflation on growth. We find no evidence supporting the view that inflation is in general harmful to GDP growth. On the other hand, there is a negative correlation between contemporaneous intra-country inflation and growth for periods characterised by positive oil-price shocks.

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