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Counterterror intelligence operations and terror attacks

Authors
  • Feinstein, Jonathan S.
  • Kaplan, Edward H.
Type
Published Article
Journal
Public Choice
Publisher
Springer US
Publication Date
Oct 11, 2011
Volume
149
Issue
3-4
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1007/s11127-011-9842-7
Source
Springer Nature
Keywords
License
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Abstract

We present a formal model of an intelligence agency that must divide its resources between the collection and analysis of information pertaining to terror plots. The model highlights the negative consequences of queues which form when collection exceeds analytic capacity. We incorporate the response of a terrorist organization to the operating characteristics of the intelligence system it faces, and solve for equilibrium strategies for the intelligence system and terrorist organization. Our results demonstrate the importance of properly balancing resources between collection and analysis, and stand in contrast to the observed state of overcollection in US intelligence agencies.

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