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A cointegration analysis of rabies cases and weather components in Davao City, Philippines from 2006 to 2017.

Authors
  • Lachica, Zython Paul T1
  • Peralta, Johanna Marie1
  • Diamante, Eliezer O1
  • Murao, Lyre Anni E2
  • Mata, May Anne E1
  • Alviola Iv, Pedro A3
  • 1 Department of Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science, University of the Philippines Mindanao, Davao City, Philippines. , (Philippines)
  • 2 Department of Biological Sciences and Environmental Studies, University of the Philippines Mindanao, Davao City, Philippines. , (Philippines)
  • 3 School of Management, University of the Philippines Mindanao, Davao City, Philippines. , (Philippines)
Type
Published Article
Journal
PLoS ONE
Publisher
Public Library of Science
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2020
Volume
15
Issue
8
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236278
PMID: 32841247
Source
Medline
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

Rabies is a lethal viral disease and dogs are the major disease reservoir in the Philippines. Spatio-temporal variations in environmental factors are known to affect disease dynamics. Some rabies-affected countries considered investigating the role of weather components in driving rabies cases and it has helped them to strategize their control efforts. In this study, cointegration analysis was conducted between the monthly reported rabies cases and the weather components, such as temperature and precipitation, to verify the effect of weather components on rabies incidence in Davao City, Philippines. With the Engle-Granger cointegration tests, we found that rabies cases are cointegrated into each of the weather components. It was further validated, using the Granger causality test, that each weather component predicts the rabies cases and not vice versa. Moreover, we performed the Johansen cointegration test to show that the weather components simultaneously affect the number of rabies cases, which allowed us to estimate a vector-error correction model for rabies incidence as a function of temperature and precipitation. Our analyses showed that canine rabies in Davao City was weather-sensitive, which implies that rabies incidence could be projected using established long-run relationship among reported rabies cases, temperature, and precipitation. This study also provides empirical evidence that can guide local health officials in formulating preventive strategies for rabies control and eradication based on weather patterns.

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